Alberta Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan
Executive summary
Alberta's Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan (EREDP) combines production growth targets with sector-level abatement obligations. The EPM evaluated the internal consistency of the plan's emissions and production targets, finding a significant gap between stated reductions and modelled outcomes when production growth scenarios are incorporated into the baseline.
Key findings
Emissions: The 22% reduction target is inconsistent with simultaneous production growth to 4.2 Mbpd. Modelled net emissions show an 8–13% reduction at best, assuming full abatement technology deployment.
Technology dependencies: Achievement of stated targets depends on carbon capture deployment at 3–4x current planning rates, with no demonstrated policy mechanism to drive this acceleration.
Economic: The plan's production growth projections generate $14–18B in additional royalty revenue over the assessment period, partially offsetting abatement capital costs.
Methodology
This assessment was produced using the M3 Platform, a suite of energy-economy models maintained by the Energy Modelling Hub and supported by Open Insights and academic partners. Policy measures were encoded using the standardized EPM Policy Encoding framework, run against the EMH Assumptions Database baseline, and validated through independent QAQC review.
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