Federal Clean Electricity Regulations — Draft Framework
Executive summary
The Federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) set out a binding framework for Canada's electricity sector to achieve net-zero emissions by 2035. The EPM evaluated the draft CER against the EMH baseline using M3 Platform electricity system optimization models, assessing feasibility across four regional grids. The assessment finds that the policy's targets are technically achievable but will require acceleration of interprovincial transmission investment and earlier-than-scheduled retirement of gas peaking plants in Alberta and Ontario.
Key findings
Emissions: Grid-level emissions are projected to fall 71–78% by 2035 relative to the 2005 baseline, falling short of the 80% target under current investment trajectories.
Infrastructure: Meeting the 2035 target requires 18–24 GW of new transmission capacity between Alberta–BC and Ontario–Quebec corridors by 2032.
Employment: Net energy sector employment is projected to increase by 12,000–18,000 FTEs between 2025 and 2035, concentrated in solar installation and grid operations.
Expert interpretive brief available
An academic partner has published an interpretive brief on this assessment.
Methodology
This assessment was produced using the M3 Platform, a suite of energy-economy models maintained by the Energy Modelling Hub and supported by Open Insights and academic partners. Policy measures were encoded using the standardized EPM Policy Encoding framework, run against the EMH Assumptions Database baseline, and validated through independent QAQC review.
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